It is time to reflect on how redistricting, lawsuits,
Supreme Court rulings, delayed Primary Dates, and Super PAC money for the Texas Primary have impacted the incumbents, the Primary challengers, and open
seats in the local Democratic
Primary. I believe that the delay
hurt incumbents the most, gave decent primary challengers a real shot, and
altered the outcomes of the open seats! As a former office holder in my own
bloody Primary two years ago, I have had the opportunity to sit in the
bleachers and not play on the field. And this Primary season in El Paso has
been the bloodiest I have witnessed in my entire voting life. It is more brutal
than the Obama/Clinton Primary in 2008!
El Paso Political Follies 2012
The follies
included “porta-pottie politics”
when a public facility with early
voting machines banned public bathrooms forcing
two candidates to come forth and pay for a “porta-pottie” to be delivered and cleaned daily in Fabens, Texas in
the far East section of El Paso County.
This public voting facility is where voters were voting for candidates
for the 23rd Congressional District, state representative, county commissioner
as well as the rest of the down ballot and the president and vice president
(only in El Paso County).
The Elections
Administrator confirmed that complaints had been made at the Carolina Senior Center when impassioned
volunteers were resorting to name calling, running up to voters, blocking other
poll workers from being able to pass out campaign literature, cursing, and physical contact actually occurred (allegedly)
that almost led to some serious FIST FIGHTS between candidate volunteers. The
Carolina Senior Center is a public
facility where a heavy voter turn-out occurs every election cycle, South of
the Freeway ( in a predominately Hispanic
voting bloc area in my old House district). Now it is a political hot spot! Used to be everyone
was civil and went about their way, broke bread together, but not anymore!
On the opposite side of town known as the West Side, the more affluent side of
town, Fiesta shopping center was the
#1 Early Voting location in the city
where it recorded thousands of people voting and where the majority of the thousands of Republican crossover vote
likely occurred. A respected local journalist, Estela Casas, reported on air, that a person working at KVIA was personally called by millionaire real estate tycoon Bill Sanders,
a well known Republican, asking the person to cross over vote for his son-in-law running on the ballot as “Beto” O’Rourke.
A local political
blogger who has posted strong and opinionated blog posts for one or the
other candidate in a variety of races is on the payroll with a husband of a
local politico that jumped from one race to another. The “husband”
himself is an elected official and one of the candidates that bowed out of the
open seat for House District 75 and
is “moonlighting” as a political consultant! The blogger
created logos and produced TV spots and mail. No law prohibits the blogger from
doing it, but don’t base your political judgment on someone who is picking up “Benjamin’s” to write opinion on a
politico or candidate. His is biased and
directly influenced by the coins thrown
his way!
The a public reunion of the “Shapleighites” occurred at voting locations all over town as the
political faction, the predecessor of the “Veronicuns”,
were seen out in force for O’Rourke
including County Judge Veronica Escobar
with her “I heart Beto” t-shirt and
sign at Carolina Senior Center, Eliot Shapleigh
and his wife were seen at the corner of Sunland and Mesa St.’s waving
signs, City Rep. Susie Byrd was at Early
Voting locations in the Northeast, and Stevo
was probably hiding from the sun so that he can run for Mayor next year. Stevo was seen with O’Rourke, Veronica, and
Shapleigh at a popular eatery in the Cincinnati Street district.
The 16th District Congressional
race brought out the uglies! Beto O’Rourke started the campaign with
mailings referencing “corruption”
against Congressman Reyes with the
Reyes campaign strategy choosing to stay focused on positive messaging until BAM!
The O’Rourke campaign took advantage and conveniently distanced themselves
from the SUPER PAC’s capacity to go “robo negative” on the Congressman.
One of my early political mentors, Lena Guerrero, left me a lot of tools in the “political tool box” and one of the lessons she shared with me was
to “STRIKE BACK” in the medium that
you are attacked with 48 hours of being attacked. This means you have to have
that attack in the “can” and ready
to drop as soon as you are hit. I
believe the Congressman’s campaign should have followed that strategy. And in
this age of social media, you have the capacity to “strike back” in seconds!!
Further, you have a White
guy with a Brown nickname…and a Brown guy with a White nickname. Robert
Francis O’Rourke is far from being a Hispanic
candidate for Congress in a Hispanic
District but the nickname, and “Beto”
is all he has on the ballot, does give a lot of voters the impression he is somehow Hispanic. He is not and he has
never said he is. I have heard different
versions of how he got the nickname, I always wondered what the real story is.
Silvestre Reyes, is a career public
servant, moving up the ranks in the Border
Patrol, until running for Congress.
He moved up the ranks in the US House of Representatives, serving as a Chair of a standing committee and Chair of the US Hispanic Caucus. He has
the nickname “Silver” but is and has
always run simply as “Silvestre Reyes”.
And so these El
Paso Political tidbits come into play with my “Norma’s Picks & Predicts for the 2012 El Paso Democratic Primary”.
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President
Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden
FOUR MORE YEARS, FOUR MORE YEARS, FOUR MORE
YEARS!!
"When enough of you knock on doors, when you pick up
phones, when you talk to your friends, when you decide that it’s time for
change to happen, guess what? Change happens. Change comes to America." –
President Barack Obama. Enough said!
Obama/Biden need to carry El Paso by more than 65%!
US
SENATE: Paul Sadler
I
having served in the Texas Legislature with Paul when he rewrote the education
code, witnessed him chairing a super committee of Texas House of Representative
Chairmen, and witnessed his temperament to get both Republicans and Democrats
to agree on complicated issues for the state of Texas. He is the best overall candidate
with Texas legislature credentials and achievements, and he was endorsed by all
major newspapers in the state except for our local paper who didn’t endorse in
the race. Paul needs to carry El Paso by any means necessary! Paul Sadler helps the down ballot in
November, BIG TIME! A rural East Texas Democrat with manners and a record is
just what we need!
US
Representative District 16
The contentious race allowed an out of town political
action committee to define the incumbent and the millionaires that contributed
should not be allowed to buy this seat or any other. The Republican “dog whistle” blown by Beto O’Rourke’s rich father-in-law Bill Sanders, who phone banked
Republicans to “cross-over” and “vote
Democrat to influence and elect and send my rich son-in-law Beto to Congress”
is a very dangerous precedent established in this race. It is a “model” that will be duplicated in
everywhere America and against incumbent Latino Congresspersons. I believe that the Democratic base has been beaten
down with the public corruption incidents and that there is disbelief of the blatant
bias by the El Paso Times and voters
have silently voted in the “D”
column for Congressman Silvestre Reyes in
greater numbers. El Paso is a Democratic stronghold and
this is a Democratic Primary, Beto O’Rourke’s personally pedaling and pandering
to Republican voters to win is going to be his big mistake, even though the Congressman stands to gain from some crossover vote for Beto's vote to reverse the voters decision in a voter referendum. Further,
Congressman Reyes’ endorsement by
two US Presidents including President
Barack Obama and President Bill
Clinton, is a “dog whistle” to
the Democratic base. I call the
Democratic race for Congressman Silvestre Reyes. He wins outright or leads in a
run-off.
US
House of Representatives District 23
Ciro Rodriguez and Pete Gallego will tangle in a
run-off. I served briefly with Ciro and
throughout my career in the legislature with Pete. Both are outstanding men
with different qualities. Ciro has been on the ballot in El Paso before and has
been in the trenches on issues especially serving in the US House
Appropriations Committee so he will have the El Paso advantage. Pete has the benefit of friendly races in the
down ballot with Mary Gonzalez working with him to help cover precincts. Pete’s old district is in the congressional
district and Bustamante helps the situation for a run-off. I call a run-off between
Gallego and Rodriguez. Either Gallego or Rodriguez can lead.
State
Board of Education, District 1
The likable Sergio
Mora came to El Paso for a week and a half stay speaking with educators,
political groups, politicos, community leaders and garnered the support of
County Judge Veronica Escobar and the El Paso Times, State Senator Judith
Zaffrinni and Congressman Henry Cuellar.
Meanwhile, bootstrap in the trenches for adult education and rough
around the edges, Andres Muro, ran
on his experience in education and worked to death to get a late endorsement by
the Federation of Teachers. State Senator Jose Rodriguez, and most of the “Veronicuns/Shapleighite”
faction now support Muro. I call a run-off between Mora and Muro,
Mora leads in the run off.
State
Representative District 75
Mary
Gonzalez of Clint, Texas comes home after continuing to pursue
her higher education goals and simultaneously campaigns for House District 75 while completing a PhD. She has the most money, endorsements, but she has still struggled
to connect completely to the stalwart Democratic District that is getting to know her and
like her. Hector Enriquez struggled from the beginning
making mistake after mistake, filing incomplete campaign reports, but has been
consistent in walking the district getting one vote at a time. He has the most "old school" name ID as he has the same
name as his former public office holder father, Hector Enriquez Sr. His strategy is to get in a run-off and
he is likely to do that as Tony San
Roman has the famed (or infamous) Serna
family backing him, which in the Valley is a big thing. I call a run-off between Mary
Gonzalez and Hector Enriquez with Gonzalez having a substantial lead (if she
doesn’t squeak by with the number of votes to win out right). It is simply old entrenched politics vs
getting to know the “homegirl” who’s been away.
That’s all!
State Representative District 77
She is Marisa Marquez,
the state rep that beat the 30 plus year incumbent and Hispanic leader of many “firsts”
Paul Moreno. She makes much to do
about the delegation “getting along” even though the delegation I served with
was successful, achieving landmark legislation including the first funding for
the medical school. Her political mail focuses on her legislation for “colonias” but she has NO COLONIAS in her district and she is
known in the Capitol for stealing that bill from Senator Eddie Lucio, putting her name on it, and passing it with
Senator Eliot Shapleigh, a no-no! She touts her passage of the “ethics bill” which
has achieved absolutely nothing to date and is what it was projected to be and
that is a “feel good bill” that Shapleigh wanted to pursue. She is known in
Democratic circles for firing the Democratic workhorse Alice Rosas and working tirelessly to deny her unemployment
benefits (Rosas eventually won), for sending Rosas to look for her car after
nights out on the town, for her alcohol consumption and for talking down to lobbyists and ANYONE that was
supportive of me when I served in the legislature (I’m gone and done at the
Capitol deary). Aaron Barraza I had the distinct pleasure of meeting, months
after he filed for office. He has run a
textbook campaign on a limited budget, walked precincts, phone banked, and has
garnered endorsements of major political organizations, groups, and Paul
Moreno. With a little more money he
could have beat her solidly. The
crossover vote is of concern especially since Dee Margo was phone banking Republicans and Democrats to support
Marquez. Marquez is so disliked by so many people I call the race for Aaron
Barraza by 200 votes, in spite of big amounts of cash she's spent.
Everyone in Austin will love Aaron and he will make a fine addition to
the Delegation.
Chief
Justice, 8th Court of Appeals
Ann
Crawford McClure is not a "shoo-in" in part because she is a Republican appointee to the bench.
Luis Labrado lacked enough money for a basic name ID mailer or early
voting TV spots to allow voters to get to know him. The Republican crossover benefits McClure. I call the race for McClure.
Jusice,
8th Court of Appeals
Judge
Marcos Lizarraga has the office holder advantage and has sent
a reminder political mailer to voters that the El Paso Times made a big “to-do
over” something that was NOTHING. It
only helped his already high name ID. Yvonne Rodriguez has served on the bench
and lost her re-election bid, has some pretty snazzy mail and TV spots.
Tom Stanton is the underground favorite of many in the legal
community but that doesn’t always transpose into votes. He will benefit from
the great surge in crossover vote for “Beto” and for “Silver”. I predict a run-off between Lizarraga and
Stanton.
District
Judge 41st Judicial District
Anna
Perez has the benefit of still being an office holder as County
Commissioner and running for the bench.
Her husband Art Fierro is a
tireless campaigner, EPCC Community College Trustee, and now political
consultant handling other candidates on this Primary ballot. Perez is part of
the political faction “Veronicuns” (some
people like them, some people love them and some people HATE THEM). Mike
Cervantes tried some different things including synchronized text
messaging. Dolores Reyes had professional help this election, and
ran a simple judicial type race. This race was very amicable between the
opponents. I call a run-off between Dolores Reyes and
Mike Cervantes, Reyes leads.
District Judge 243st Judicial District
Richard
Contreras is a nice and respectable person, having served as legal
adviser to a variety of public entities. Luis Aguilar served on the bench and has
more name ID. I call the race for Aguilar.
District Judge 383rd
Judicial District
Mike
Herrera’s message was simple: "I’m the judge on the streets waving
with my yellow sign". Lisa Aceves Hayes was recruited to run
and came on strong with a good TV spot.
Not enough for Hayes. Herrera remains on the bench.
District Judge, 388th Judicial District
Don
Williams is Chair of
the Black El Paso Democrats and
touts a multi-page resume which crowns him king of the forest. He had a previous situation when he
served on the bench that follows him around and a whisper campaign by multiple groups
and individuals against him. Laura Strathmann
has the money, has a lot of endorsements, has worked the circuit but still
falls a little short on people’s confidence for her to serve on the bench. Lucilla Flores Camarena I don’t know
enough about her other than she was recruited to run and given no or little support. Phillip
“Phil” Mullin is the likable lawyer, that loves rock-n-roll (leaning on heavy metal), is grounded and hard working. I call a run-off between Laura Strathmann and Phil Mullin. Strathmann
leads the pack.
District
Judge, 448th Judicial District
David
R. Cavazos has a big sign on the freeway near the IH-10 exit near
Downtown going West. That’s it! Sergio
H. Enriquez is a “phantom” candidate who has not been seen or heard of
since his last campaign (?). Ray
Gutierrez is the former firefighter, crime fighting and motorcycle riding attorney,
who’s campaign workers almost duked it out with Arditti campaign workers. Judge
Regina Arditti is the famed judge charged with nepotism, represented in
court by Theresa Caballero and Stuart Leeds, and a jury panel found her not
guilty of any charge. She had her day in court and WON, has a beautiful
billboard, and sent out a reminder
mailer to the voters, and has a bulk of the endorsements. Too many horses in the race. I call a run-off
with Judge Arditti and Ray Rodriguez.
Arditti leads.
Criminal District Judge, Court No. 1
Diane
Navarette don’t know enough about her other than the fact she is
another female in the race, which is why she possibly was recruited to run.
Theresa Caballero is a sort of “household” name, known for many
things including countering her father’s political agenda on City Council when
he was Mayor, taking on elected officials and calling them out, running for DA,
and most recently representing Judge Arditti in a case that found the Judge NOT
GUILTY, but her court decorum landed her in deep trouble with the Judge. She is
fearless and considered the “underdogs” BIG
DOG! Jose Castillo has had
endorsements and money enough to run a TV commercial that the only thing that
remains in my head is “why is he sitting down”. I call the race for Theresa Caballero no run-off. She is going to be a thorn in someone’s side.
District
Attorney
Jaime
Esparza has the name ID, has the experience, and has done
nothing more than “not draw attention” to the race. James
Lucas has an ax to grind and is possibly in the race to keep Jaime busy
because his “thorn in his side” is running for a judicial seat this time around. Jaime
Esparza wins 70% plus.
County Tax Assessor-Collector
Armando
Rodriguez is the “pounding on the door” candidate with a message
and data on the incumbent, waiting to be heard and exposed by any and all
voters willing to listen. He us part of the “young blood” running this election
cycle. Victor A. Flores did a
taxpayer “no no” when he sent what looked like a political mailer in a tax
funded mail out. He is entrenched and I think that Rodriguez smells a
retirement coming soon and getting himself ready. Too
close to call because of the new blood running. Incumbent Flores has the
advantage but could go the other way.
County Commissioner Precinct No. 1
Carlos
Leon is the former
Chief of Police in a not-so-good year for police officers due to corruption
and ongoing indictments of police officers. But he does have name ID and
experienced campaign assistance and the old guard in support of his candidacy. Liza
Montelongo is a former member of the Ysleta Independent School District
school board, she helps hundreds of high school students apply and obtain
college scholarships, she is known as a vocal advocate on the school board. She
has run a smart campaign, with good campaign literature, clear message, and
boots on the ground. Jaime Romo is a
County of El Paso Nutrition Program Administrator. He has minimal funding and
is a good guy with parents who are experienced in grass roots organizing. He
will be back. He has the heart to serve the people. Liza
Montelongo will lead in a run-off if she doesn’t squeak by and take it. Carlos
Leon will be ready to start fresh in a run-off so Liza will have to stay on her
toes!
County
Commissioner Precinct No. 3
Vincent
“Vince” Perez is the young blood in this coral of horses. He
earned his stripes working for Congressman Reyes but was recruited and coaxed
into running by County Judge Veronica Escobar. Many people say, the Judge
wanted to get Vince out of the office of Congressman Reyes for the benefit of her
political ally Beto O’Rourke and unfortunately Vince lost support because of
what many perceived as disloyalty. He is brilliant but common sense cost him
his job in DC. He could have waited and been anointed by the Congressman and all
his supporters. It was Vince’s call. “Chente”
Quintanilla is the former state representative who retired to run for
County Commissioner. He is the “old school” candidate that has gone from school
administrator, to college board trustee, to state rep, to wanting to be County Commissioner. Vince has
tried to tag him as a “pension jumper” but Chente is elected and re-elected
because he knows people by their first name. Rudolfo “Rudy” Loya is the amicable candidate who has worked the
political organizations but this go around fell short of support. He is
developing his own political identity and name ID for the future. He has been
seen “tag teaming” with Vince Perez. Dora Oaxaca is the only female in the
race. Dora is a very experienced
campaign consultant having elected Chente, Willie, and a slew of other
candidates even serving as the “nuts and bolts” of Shapleigh’s campaign against Dee
Margo. She should not be under
estimated! This Lower Valley race
has been rough at the early voting polls. I call the run-off between Chente and Dora or
Dora and Chente. They both know who to
get out to vote and when. Vince and Rudy have been so chummy, they have both
cut into their own vote. Vince will end
up working for the “Veronicun” faction in some capacity. Rudy will run again
and win.
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