Norma’s “PICKS & PREDICTS” for the 2012 Democratic Primary

It is time to reflect on how redistricting, lawsuits, Supreme Court rulings, delayed Primary Dates, and Super PAC money for the Texas Primary have impacted the incumbents, the Primary challengers, and open seats in the local Democratic Primary.  I believe that the delay hurt incumbents the most, gave decent primary challengers a real shot, and altered the outcomes of the open seats! As a former office holder in my own bloody Primary two years ago, I have had the opportunity to sit in the bleachers and not play on the field. And this Primary season in El Paso has been the bloodiest I have witnessed in my entire voting life. It is more brutal than the Obama/Clinton Primary in 2008!

El Paso Political Follies 2012

The follies included “porta-pottie politics” when a public facility with early voting machines banned public bathrooms forcing two candidates to come forth and pay for a “porta-pottie” to be delivered and cleaned daily in Fabens, Texas in the far East section of El Paso County.  This public voting facility is where voters were voting for candidates for the 23^rd Congressional District, state representative, county commissioner as well as the rest of the down ballot and the president and vice president (only in El Paso County). 

The Elections Administrator confirmed that complaints had been made at the Carolina Senior Center when impassioned volunteers were resorting to name calling, running up to voters, blocking other poll workers from being able to pass out campaign literature, cursing, and physical contact actually occurred (allegedly) that almost led to some serious FIST FIGHTS between candidate volunteers. The Carolina Senior Center is a public facility where a heavy voter turn-out occurs every election cycle, South of the Freeway ( in a predominately Hispanic voting bloc area in my old House district). Now it is a political hot spot! Used to be everyone was civil and went about their way, broke bread together, but not anymore!

On the opposite side of town known as the West Side, the more affluent side of town, Fiesta shopping center was the #1 Early Voting location in the city where it recorded thousands of people voting and where the majority of the thousands of Republican crossover vote likely occurred. A respected local journalist, Estela Casas, reported on air, that a person working at KVIA was personally called by millionaire real estate tycoon Bill Sanders, a well known Republican, asking the person to cross over vote for his son-in-law running on the ballot as “Beto” O’Rourke.

A local political blogger who has posted strong and opinionated blog posts for one or the other candidate in a variety of races is on the payroll with a husband of a local politico that jumped from one race to another.  The “husband” himself is an elected official and one of the candidates that bowed out of the open seat for House District 75 and is “moonlighting” as a political consultant! The blogger created logos and produced TV spots and mail. No law prohibits the blogger from doing it, but don’t base your political judgment on someone who is picking up “Benjamin’s” to write opinion on a politico or candidate.  His is biased and directly influenced by the coins thrown his way!

The a public reunion of the “Shapleighites” occurred at voting locations all over town as the political faction, the predecessor of the “Veronicuns”, were seen out in force for O’Rourke including County Judge Veronica Escobar with her “I heart Beto” t-shirt and sign at Carolina Senior Center, Eliot Shapleigh and his wife were seen at the corner of Sunland and Mesa St.’s waving signs, City Rep. Susie Byrd was at Early Voting locations in the Northeast, and Stevo was probably hiding from the sun so that he can run for Mayor next year.  Stevo was seen with O’Rourke, Veronica, and Shapleigh at a popular eatery in the Cincinnati Street district.

The 16^th District Congressional race brought out the uglies! Beto O’Rourke started the campaign with mailings referencing “corruption” against Congressman Reyes with the Reyes campaign strategy choosing to stay focused on positive messaging until BAM!  The O’Rourke campaign took advantage and conveniently distanced themselves from the SUPER PAC’s capacity to go “robo negative” on the Congressman. 

One of my early political mentors, Lena Guerrero, left me a lot of tools in the “political tool box” and one of the lessons she shared with me was to “STRIKE BACK” in the medium that you are attacked with 48 hours of being attacked. This means you have to have that attack in the “can” and ready to drop as soon as you are hit.  I believe the Congressman’s campaign should have followed that strategy. And in this age of social media, you have the capacity to “strike back” in seconds!!

Further, you have a White guy with a Brown nickname…and a Brown guy with a White nickname. Robert Francis O’Rourke is far from being a Hispanic candidate for Congress in a Hispanic District but the nickname, and “Beto” is all he has on the ballot, does give a lot of voters the impression he is somehow Hispanic. He is not and he has never said he is.  I have heard different versions of how he got the nickname, I always wondered what the real story is.

Silvestre Reyes, is a career public servant, moving up the ranks in the Border Patrol, until running for Congress.  He moved up the ranks in the US House of Representatives, serving as a Chair of a standing committee and Chair of the US Hispanic Caucus.  He has the nickname “Silver” but is and has always run simply as “Silvestre Reyes”. 

And so these El Paso Political tidbits come into play with my “Norma’s Picks & Predicts for the 2012 El Paso Democratic Primary”.

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President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden

FOUR MORE YEARS, FOUR MORE YEARS, FOUR MORE YEARS!!

"When enough of you knock on doors, when you pick up phones, when you talk to your friends, when you decide that it’s time for change to happen, guess what? Change happens. Change comes to America." – President Barack Obama.  Enough said! Obama/Biden need to carry El Paso by more than 65%!

US SENATE: Paul Sadler

I having served in the Texas Legislature with Paul when he rewrote the education code, witnessed him chairing a super committee of Texas House of Representative Chairmen, and witnessed his temperament to get both Republicans and Democrats to agree on complicated issues for the state of Texas. He is the best overall candidate with Texas legislature credentials and achievements, and he was endorsed by all major newspapers in the state except for our local paper who didn’t endorse in the race. Paul needs to carry El Paso by any means necessary!  Paul Sadler helps the down ballot in November, BIG TIME! A rural East Texas Democrat with manners and a record is just what we need!

US Representative District 16

The contentious race allowed an out of town political action committee to define the incumbent and the millionaires that contributed should not be allowed to buy this seat or any other.  The Republican “dog whistle” blown by Beto O’Rourke’s rich father-in-law Bill Sanders, who phone banked Republicans to “cross-over” and “vote Democrat to influence and elect and send my rich son-in-law Beto to Congress” is a very dangerous precedent established in this race.  It is a “model” that will be duplicated in everywhere America and against incumbent Latino Congresspersons.  I believe that the Democratic base has been beaten down with the public corruption incidents and that there is disbelief of the blatant bias by the El Paso Times and voters have silently voted in the “D” column for Congressman Silvestre Reyes in greater numbers. El Paso is a Democratic stronghold and this is a Democratic Primary, Beto O’Rourke’s personally pedaling and pandering to Republican voters to win is going to be his big mistake, even though the Congressman stands to gain from some crossover vote for Beto's vote to reverse the voters decision in a voter referendum. Further, Congressman Reyes’ endorsement by two US Presidents including President Barack Obama and President Bill Clinton, is a “dog whistle” to the Democratic base. I call the Democratic race for Congressman Silvestre Reyes. He wins outright or leads in a run-off. 

US House of Representatives District 23

Ciro Rodriguez and Pete Gallego will tangle in a run-off.  I served briefly with Ciro and throughout my career in the legislature with Pete. Both are outstanding men with different qualities. Ciro has been on the ballot in El Paso before and has been in the trenches on issues especially serving in the US House Appropriations Committee so he will have the El Paso advantage.  Pete has the benefit of friendly races in the down ballot with Mary Gonzalez working with him to help cover precincts.  Pete’s old district is in the congressional district and Bustamante helps the situation for a run-off.  I call a run-off between Gallego and Rodriguez. Either Gallego or Rodriguez can lead.

State Board of Education, District 1

The likable Sergio Mora came to El Paso for a week and a half stay speaking with educators, political groups, politicos, community leaders and garnered the support of County Judge Veronica Escobar and the El Paso Times, State Senator Judith Zaffrinni and Congressman Henry Cuellar.  Meanwhile, bootstrap in the trenches for adult education and rough around the edges, Andres Muro, ran on his experience in education and worked to death to get a late endorsement by the Federation of Teachers. State Senator Jose Rodriguez, and most of the “Veronicuns/Shapleighite” faction now support Muro.  I call a run-off between Mora and Muro, Mora leads in the run off.

State Representative District 75

Mary Gonzalez of Clint, Texas comes home after continuing to pursue her higher education goals and simultaneously campaigns for House District 75 while completing a PhD. She has the most money, endorsements, but she has still struggled to connect completely to the stalwart Democratic District that is getting to know her and like her.  Hector Enriquez struggled from the beginning making mistake after mistake, filing incomplete campaign reports, but has been consistent in walking the district getting one vote at a time.  He has the most "old school" name ID as he has the same name as his former public office holder father, Hector Enriquez Sr.  His strategy is to get in a run-off and he is likely to do that as Tony San Roman has the famed (or infamous) Serna family backing him, which in the Valley is a big thing.  I call a run-off between Mary Gonzalez and Hector Enriquez with Gonzalez having a substantial lead (if she doesn’t squeak by with the number of votes to win out right).  It is simply old entrenched politics vs getting to know the “homegirl” who’s been away.  That’s all!

State Representative District 77

She is Marisa Marquez, the state rep that beat the 30 plus year incumbent and Hispanic leader of many “firsts” Paul Moreno. She makes much to do about the delegation “getting along” even though the delegation I served with was successful, achieving landmark legislation including the first funding for the medical school. Her political mail focuses on her legislation for “colonias” but she has NO COLONIAS in her district and she is known in the Capitol for stealing that bill from Senator Eddie Lucio, putting her name on it, and passing it with Senator Eliot Shapleigh, a no-no! She touts her passage of the “ethics bill” which has achieved absolutely nothing to date and is what it was projected to be and that is a “feel good bill” that Shapleigh wanted to pursue. She is known in Democratic circles for firing the Democratic workhorse Alice Rosas and working tirelessly to deny her unemployment benefits (Rosas eventually won), for sending Rosas to look for her car after nights out on the town, for her alcohol consumption and for talking down to lobbyists and ANYONE that was supportive of me when I served in the legislature (I’m gone and done at the Capitol deary). Aaron Barraza I had the distinct pleasure of meeting, months after he filed for office.  He has run a textbook campaign on a limited budget, walked precincts, phone banked, and has garnered endorsements of major political organizations, groups, and Paul Moreno.  With a little more money he could have beat her solidly.  The crossover vote is of concern especially since Dee Margo was phone banking Republicans and Democrats to support Marquez.  Marquez is so disliked by so many people I call the race for Aaron Barraza by 200 votes, in spite of big amounts of cash she's spent.  Everyone in Austin will love Aaron and he will make a fine addition to the Delegation.

Chief Justice, 8^th Court of Appeals

Ann Crawford McClure is not a "shoo-in" in part because she is a Republican appointee to the bench.  Luis Labrado lacked enough money for a basic name ID mailer or early voting TV spots to allow voters to get to know him.  The Republican crossover benefits McClure. I call the race for McClure.

Jusice, 8^th Court of Appeals

Judge Marcos Lizarraga has the office holder advantage and has sent a reminder political mailer to voters that the El Paso Times made a big “to-do over” something that was NOTHING. It only helped his already high name ID.  Yvonne Rodriguez has served on the bench and lost her re-election bid, has some pretty snazzy mail and TV spots.  Tom Stanton is the underground favorite of many in the legal community but that doesn’t always transpose into votes. He will benefit from the great surge in crossover vote for “Beto” and for “Silver”. I predict a run-off between Lizarraga and Stanton.

District Judge 41^st Judicial District

Anna Perez has the benefit of still being an office holder as County Commissioner and running for the bench.  Her husband Art Fierro is a tireless campaigner, EPCC Community College Trustee, and now political consultant handling other candidates on this Primary ballot. Perez is part of the political faction “Veronicuns” (some people like them, some people love them and some people HATE THEM).  Mike Cervantes tried some different things including synchronized text messaging.  Dolores Reyes had professional help this election, and ran a simple judicial type race. This race was very amicable between the opponents.  I call a run-off between Dolores Reyes and Mike Cervantes, Reyes leads.

District Judge 243^st Judicial District

Richard Contreras is a nice and respectable person, having served as legal adviser to a variety of public entities.  Luis Aguilar served on the bench and has more name ID.  I call the race for Aguilar.

District Judge 383^rd Judicial District

Mike Herrera’s message was simple: "I’m the judge on the streets waving with my yellow sign".  Lisa Aceves Hayes was recruited to run and came on strong with a good TV spot.  Not enough for Hayes.  Herrera remains on the bench.

District Judge, 388^th Judicial District

Don Williams is Chair of the Black El Paso Democrats and touts a multi-page resume which crowns him king of the forest. He had a previous situation when he served on the bench that follows him around and a whisper campaign by multiple groups and individuals against him. Laura Strathmann has the money, has a lot of endorsements, has worked the circuit but still falls a little short on people’s confidence for her to serve on the bench. Lucilla Flores Camarena I don’t know enough about her other than she was recruited to run and given no or little support.  Phillip “Phil” Mullin is the likable lawyer, that loves rock-n-roll (leaning on heavy metal), is grounded and hard working. I call a run-off between Laura Strathmann and Phil Mullin. Strathmann leads the pack. 

District Judge, 448^th Judicial District

David R. Cavazos has a big sign on the freeway near the IH-10 exit near Downtown going West. That’s it! Sergio H. Enriquez is a “phantom” candidate who has not been seen or heard of since his last campaign (?). Ray Gutierrez is the former firefighter, crime fighting and motorcycle riding attorney, who’s campaign workers almost duked it out with Arditti campaign workers.  Judge Regina Arditti is the famed judge charged with nepotism, represented in court by Theresa Caballero and Stuart Leeds, and a jury panel found her not guilty of any charge. She had her day in court and WON, has a beautiful billboard, and sent out a reminder mailer to the voters, and has a bulk of the endorsements.  Too many horses in the race. I call a run-off with Judge Arditti and Ray Rodriguez.  Arditti leads.

Criminal District Judge, Court No. 1

Diane Navarette don’t know enough about her other than the fact she is another female in the race, which is why she possibly was recruited to run.  Theresa Caballero is a sort of “household” name, known for many things including countering her father’s political agenda on City Council when he was Mayor, taking on elected officials and calling them out, running for DA, and most recently representing Judge Arditti in a case that found the Judge NOT GUILTY, but her court decorum landed her in deep trouble with the Judge. She is fearless and considered the “underdogs” BIG DOG! Jose Castillo has had endorsements and money enough to run a TV commercial that the only thing that remains in my head is “why is he sitting down”. I call the race for Theresa Caballero no run-off.  She is going to be a thorn in someone’s side.   

District Attorney

Jaime Esparza has the name ID, has the experience, and has done nothing more than “not draw attention” to the race.  James Lucas has an ax to grind and is possibly in the race to keep Jaime busy because his “thorn in his side” is running for a judicial seat this time around.  Jaime Esparza wins 70% plus.

County Tax Assessor-Collector

Armando Rodriguez is the “pounding on the door” candidate with a message and data on the incumbent, waiting to be heard and exposed by any and all voters willing to listen. He us part of the “young blood” running this election cycle. Victor A. Flores did a taxpayer “no no” when he sent what looked like a political mailer in a tax funded mail out. He is entrenched and I think that Rodriguez smells a retirement coming soon and getting himself ready.  Too close to call because of the new blood running. Incumbent Flores has the advantage but could go the other way.

County Commissioner Precinct No. 1

Carlos Leon is the former Chief of Police in a not-so-good year for police officers due to corruption and ongoing indictments of police officers. But he does have name ID and experienced campaign assistance and the old guard in support of his candidacy.  Liza Montelongo is a former member of the Ysleta Independent School District school board, she helps hundreds of high school students apply and obtain college scholarships, she is known as a vocal advocate on the school board. She has run a smart campaign, with good campaign literature, clear message, and boots on the ground. Jaime Romo is a County of El Paso Nutrition Program Administrator. He has minimal funding and is a good guy with parents who are experienced in grass roots organizing. He will be back. He has the heart to serve the people.  Liza Montelongo will lead in a run-off if she doesn’t squeak by and take it. Carlos Leon will be ready to start fresh in a run-off so Liza will have to stay on her toes!

County Commissioner Precinct No. 3

Vincent “Vince” Perez is the young blood in this coral of horses. He earned his stripes working for Congressman Reyes but was recruited and coaxed into running by County Judge Veronica Escobar. Many people say, the Judge wanted to get Vince out of the office of Congressman Reyes for the benefit of her political ally Beto O’Rourke and unfortunately Vince lost support because of what many perceived as disloyalty. He is brilliant but common sense cost him his job in DC. He could have waited and been anointed by the Congressman and all his supporters. It was Vince’s call. “Chente” Quintanilla is the former state representative who retired to run for County Commissioner. He is the “old school” candidate that has gone from school administrator, to college board trustee, to state rep, to wanting to be County Commissioner. Vince has tried to tag him as a “pension jumper” but Chente is elected and re-elected because he knows people by their first name. Rudolfo “Rudy” Loya is the amicable candidate who has worked the political organizations but this go around fell short of support. He is developing his own political identity and name ID for the future. He has been seen “tag teaming” with Vince Perez.  Dora Oaxaca is the only female in the race.  Dora is a very experienced campaign consultant having elected Chente, Willie, and a slew of other candidates even serving as the “nuts and bolts” of Shapleigh’s campaign against Dee Margo.  She should not be under estimated! This Lower Valley race has been rough at the early voting polls.  I call the run-off between Chente and Dora or Dora and Chente.  They both know who to get out to vote and when. Vince and Rudy have been so chummy, they have both cut into their own vote.  Vince will end up working for the “Veronicun” faction in some capacity. Rudy will run again and win.  

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